I looked at the BCS rankings for the last five years. I don't know how this selection system will work, but I suppose their rankings or as good as any on figuring who the four teams selected would be (conspiracy theories will be rampant with a selection committee). Using those rankings, I drew up the four team playoff and looked at teams that were considered screwed that year and paid closer attention to the the non-AQ schools and the Big East. So here we go...
2011/12
1- LSU vs. 4- Stanford
2- Alabama vs. 3-Oklahoma State
I think this would have been a great year for the playoffs. The non-AQ darling was Conference USA's own Houston. UH finished the regular season undefeated and played Southern Miss for the Conference USA championship. At that time, UH was 6th in the BCS rankings. Had they won, they still would have most likely been on the outside.
2010/2011
1- Auburn vs. 4- Stanford
2- Oregon vs. 3- TCU
Okay, here is a win for the little guys. TCU went undefeated yet came up short to the undefeated PAC-10 and SEC teams. The Horned Frogs ran through the Mountain West and won their bowl game to finish the season 13-0.
2009/2010
1- Alabama vs. 4- TCU
2- Texas vs. 3- Cincinnati
This was a crazy season, and a frustrating one for the non-AQ schools. Five teams finished undefeated. The system would have worked this year for TCU and undefeated Big East Cincinnati, but WAC undefeated Boise State would not have made the cut. Overall a pretty unusual year. It would have been great to have a playoff to clear out most of the undefeated nonchampions.
2008/2009
1- Oklahoma vs. 4- Alabama
2- Florida vs. 3- Texas
This was the season that got the attention of Washington DC. Utah went undefeated and finished 6 in the BCS standings. They went on to play Alabama and defeat them in the Sugar Bowl. The new playoff system would not have helped this team, but it may have been a catalyst for the recent change. While Utah was running the table in the Mountain West, Boise State did the same in the WAC and finished at ninth.
2007/2008
1- Ohio State vs. 4- Oklahoma
2- LSU vs. 3- Virginia Tech
Hawaii finished the regular season undefeated, yet only go to #10 in the BCS rankings and winning the WAC. They didn't help their cause by getting blown out by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
Looking at this five year span, for the 20 bids-
SEC- 7
Big 12- 5
Big Ten- 1
PAC 10- 3
MWC- 2
ACC- 1
Big East- 1
WAC- 0
CUSA/MAC/Sunbelt- 0
That is a pretty interesting breakdown. Only one Big Ten bid? Same as the ACC and Big East and one less than the MWC. Of course, those two bids for the MWC are from a team that will be in the Big 12 this year. From a UTSA point of view, important to see the WAC, despite having multiple undefeated teams, did not crack this top four end of season BCS ranking. Conference USA hasn't had that undefeated spoiler team, and even if Houston could have finished it off last season, they wouldn't have been included.
The new playoff system does open up possible opportunities for schools in conferences other than the big 4. However, for a true opportunity for all FBS schools, two things should be rewarded, winning your FBS conference and being undefeated. It is my belief that all FBS schools, in theory, are equal thus playing in the same division. There should be an automatic bid for each conference champion into a playoff tournament, if not, let's quit pretending we are all playing in the same organizational level. If not that, at the very least an undefeated team should get access to a playoff system. A team should not be undefeated and not be the champion; it doesn't happen anywhere else in American sports.
I support a 16 team or 12 team playoff. Both plans hand out 10 automatic bids to conference champions, with the remaining being at-large bids. A 12 team playoff would give the top 4 first week byes, a 16 team would follow an obvious format. Don't care about the semantics of home games vs. hosted sites; just think this is the way it needs to go. Will it ever? I don't know, but I know it would make a lot of money. Initial reports are that going to the 4 team playoff is going to double the BCS money, certainly a multiple week playoff would be a money printing venture. Stay tuned, there may be logic creeping into this thing yet.
Let me know what you think, shafer@cokerchronicles.com and @shafercc on twitter...
