4.25.12 Realignment Speculation Update

I really don't like this stuff very much. You may have heard me complain about it on the Deranged Pengwin Podcast. Anyway I've inadvertently involved myself in this thing so I'll let you know what I know.

First, you may remember that I do/did Mean Green Nation before I moved back home to San Antonio and started this blog. That is important.

I was looking for info on who the new guy to replace the departed-to-LSU Johnny Jones when  someone DM'd me again the day of the UTSA Spring Game and mentioned that UNT was going to CUSA and that an announcement was coming very soon, possibly May 1st if not sooner. Well his timing is pretty damn spot on. The U of North Texas Board of Regents just allowed UNT's president Lane Rawlins to negotiate/move over to a new conference. This was a special session. Hurm. Everything is pretty much spot on with this guy. The info looks legit.

So I ask him if he knows anything about UTSA. I know everyone, including Barry Coker, is dying to know the latest information. He says he'll know more post-UNT Spring Game (April 21).

A week passes and on Monday (while letting me know the details of the Tony Benford hire) he DMs me that UTSA is unequivocally not getting into CUSA (didn't mention any other conference).

I passed it along via the Coker Chronicles twitter because I was still slightly unsure how legit this was. Tonight, after seeing predictions come pretty damn close to true, I'm even more inclined to believe this guy. He also passes along this gem:

"FIU is definitely in, the last two spots are/were down to LaTech, MTSU, and & UNCC -- but that last part is from a second-hand source."

Other little birds (Roadrunners) are saying that UTSA is planning a significant announcement next week that will require some pretty legit fanfare.

Here are your scenarios if it is a conference announcement:

1. Move to the Sun Belt -- this has long been the most likely coice ever since Benson moved to the SBC. It would also mesh with the Source's info.

2. Move to the CUSA-- the Source may not know everything and/or his source may be wrong.

3. Move to MWC -- Sure, why not?

4. Other -- We are totally off and it is just a birthday party or something.


Discuss.

Realignment Junkie: Where's My Dealer?

Editor's note: This is another post from The Barry Coker, whom you can find on twitter at @TheBarryCoker

It has been a rough week or so for us realignment junkies. The dealers have been hard to find, no matter how hard we look for them. However, indications are that a fix is coming soon.

Where UTSA sits in all this is still questionable. It is really start to look to me that what happens with UTEP will determine if UTSA gets included in the MWC/CUSA glob. There seems to be this number of 22 bouncing around that just makes no sense to me. The only conclusion I can reach is that the MWC desires to be at 10 and Conference USA at 12.

There have been some rumblings that the MWC wanted to keep 2 slots open for Boise State and San Diego State in case the Big East cross country setup did not work out. I had heard this a few months back, I believe it was actually written in an article. Some fuel was added to this today, when Jon Wilner from the San Jose Mercury News tweeted that SDSU and MWC were having discussions on keeping a spot open for them, just in case. This was laughed out through the tweetisphere and actually refuted by the SDSU AD, but it’s not totally out of the blue. SDSU and Boise State have the best basketball and football programs in the MWC, respectfully, in fact the best in the entire alliance. So I could see the MWC working this angle and moving up to 10 and staying there. Going the other way, keep in mind, there is also the threat of Air Force moving to the Big East as Navy finally came on board.

As for Conference USA, it has been assumed by many that they would like to return their configuration of 12. This would keep a conference championship game and preserve the regional desire that divisions provide. Conference USA is pretty stable at this point, no more defections are expected, and no one is anticipated to come crawling back.

Alright, so this is where UTEP comes into play. As we know, UTEP is currently a member of Conference USA, which is down to eight teams. It had been widely suspected that they would be shifting over the MWC side, which in my opinion is no slam dunk. So let’s cover that scenario. UTEP to MWC gets them up to 9 football playing schools. Adding San Jose State or Utah St rounds this out at 10, and that may be where they stop. A seemingly less likely scenario adds all three to get to 11. Eleven makes no sense, so here is an opportunity for UTSA to get it to 12. This makes a lot of sense, there would be two clear geographic divisions, but I just don’t think it will go this way. With UTEP in the MWC, Conference USA West opens up and it seems really clear that UNT, Louisiana Tech and UTSA could be joined with Tulsa, Rice and Tulane for a division.

However, if UTEP stays in Conference USA, I think MWC adds Utah St and San Jose State. This gets them up to 10, now UTSA’s bid is in trouble. The west would have UTEP, Rice, Tulsa and Tulane. They would only need two schools on the western side. UNT is a given, and I think the second school is questionable. It would come down to La Tech and UTSA. The pros and cons of the two programs are inverse of each other, with La Tech being a more sentimental choice. They were already passed over for the conference and have been keeping close ties. The advantage UTSA has is TV market, so is that money enough to screw over the school that has been waiting patiently, upgrading facilities and being the outlier in the WAC?

As UTSA fans, I believe we need to be rooting for UTEP to move west. What this entails is unclear. Because of the alliance, could Conference USA waive exit fees? Does that open up any legal issues? If there is a buyout is it worth it for travel cost savings? I am starting to get a feeling that UTEP staying in Conference USA means UTSA to the Sunbelt.

Regarding the Sunbelt, don’t be too upset if we end up there. It’s not a terrible thing, heck it’s better than the rickety WAC, but after getting a sniff at the alliance it would be a bit of a letdown. At the end of the day being in a division with Texas State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Monroe, Louisiana Lafayette and Arkansas State isn’t so bad. Hey it’s FBS and it’s regional.

Regarding that upcoming fix, according to the Tulsa AD, the presidents are meeting at the end of the month. Not sure if that means this week, weekend or Monday, but either way word should start coming out. Hopefully membership will be voted so we can all move on. Oh and hopefully that UNT source of Adam’s that says UTSA is now out is wrong!

Barry Coker: Conference Realignment Junkie

Editor's note: This is from Barry Coker, whom you can find on twitter at @TheBarryCoker

It’s the absolute filthiest of guilty pleasure. Selling out on long time friends and associates, all so you can make more money and gain a higher profile. Leaving others to scramble and struggle while you don’t even look back. So is the world of conference realignment, and I love it. Hello, my name is Barry Coker and I am a conference realignment news addict.

So what defines this addiction? Checking message boards every hour from your phone, despite what is going on in your life. Work, family, responsibilities, they all play second fiddle until I make my rounds on the group of websites I need to check in. Waiting and obsessing for tweets from beat writers and groups like Inside Runner Sports. Hanging on the words, from a Bobcat of all people, of great news breaker WAC Jack from BobcatReport.com. Feeling the rush anytime news actually breaks, and chasing that high every hour thereafter. Only thing that sucks is that news has been drrrraaagggiiinnngg on this topic.

Obviously, the big topic in the world of UTSA and realignment has to do with the recent reports of a campus visit from CUSA/MWC and that UTSA is shooting up their list. The question that no one has had any answers on is how long this list will be.

Here is a summary to what has been reported and strongly rumored. A few weeks ago, San Jose State and Utah State received visits from the conglomerate. This past week, UTSA and Louisiana Tech received visits, and word is UTSA impressed. There was some talk that Texas State received some sort of a visit as well, perhaps to see the former Aquarena Springs and Wonder World or whatever the hell you do in that shit-hole town. It is widely thought that North Texas and Florida International are already in the mix and have been for a while.

It also looks like the two conferences will stay separate, at least for a while and have some sort of agreement. For some reason, all this is some giant secret and no one has broken any reports on what the plan is. Twenty four makes so much sense logistically. They were talking about having semifinal games and then a championship. Pretty straight forward, you split the 24 into two sides and have two 6 team divisions. This is a common practice and had been seen recently with the Big 12 and SEC before their numbers changed. Then you would just have the two teams on each side meet up for championship. I think everyone understands that scenario, as it is the easiest.

To me, the one that makes the second most sense is 18, with two divisions of 9. Everyone plays everyone in their division and one conference championship game between the two divisions. Another easy scenario.

Twenty and twenty two are difficult to understand. At twenty, seems like your too small for the four division idea, and twenty two isn’t divisible by four, so I have no idea why 22 seems to be some sort of preferred number. Unless, and this has been reported, the MWC side wants to keep place holders in case Boise State and San Diego State want to come back.

So we wait, and no one seems to know what the hell is going to happen, only that it will be wrapped up around June. Oh and that the WAC is going to die. Oh and that Idaho seems to be completely fucked by this whole thing.

Hopefully UTSA makes the cut. The good thing is that there is a backup plan: the Sunbelt, and it’s not that horrible of an option.

Some scenarios that may work out:

If this thing goes to 24:

West side picks up UTEP from CUSA to get to nine. They would then add SJSU and Utah State, the only true candidates west of Texas. That gets to eleven; UTSA would certainly round that out to twelve.

Pros: Good basketball conference. MWC sent four teams to NCAA tournament last year, and only one of those teams is leaving. UTEP could make a good rivalry.

Cons: Not one drivable game in the bunch. If I were to go to El Paso, my ass is flying.

If it goes to 20 or 22:

I think at these numbers, UTSA may be looking at being on the Conference USA side of this. In name alone, this would make Goddess Hickey happy, as this was her stated goal from football day one.

Pros: Geographically this is awesome. Drives to Rice and North Texas. In state rivals, an Oklahoma rival and Louisiana rival(s).

Cons: Single bid league for basketball most years. Lower profile schools, including directionals and privates. Mountain West side has highest profile schools in four states and the second highest in two; CUSA side is a lot uglier in that regard.

If it goes to 18:

Although this makes a lot of sense to me, I don’t think it will happen. If it does, seems UTSA would not be included given the widespread inclusion of UNT and FIU.

UTSA and Texas State have the advantage of being right in the middle of the two conferences which makes them candidates for both leagues.

There is a lot of speculation that this alliance concept won’t work out, and that’s fine. The key is that UTSA gets aligned with these highest of the lower tier, so when the airport meetings get scheduled UTSA is invited. I still believe that all this insanity will one day settle down and we will get back to regional conferences. Hopefully by that time UTSA will be a high profile program that would be included.

So that is what is going on, from the addicted. It has been truly amazing what UTSA has done the last few years. Lynn Hickey is absolutely incredible and I am sure other programs will start trying to woo her away. I am grateful to have her on my schools staff as long as possible.

MWC/C-USA Officials Visit UTSA

According to Inside Roadrunner Sports, officials from both the Mountain West Conference and Conference USA were on campus this week to evaluate UTSA. This coincides with rumblings that I heard yesterday, and frankly, just makes sense given Brad Parrott's recent meeting with the San Antonio Chamber of Commerce. It's likely that while making donation pitches, Parrott was also recruiting local businessmen to present to MWC/C-USA officials. Even if both members of the Alliance opt out of inviting the Roadrunners to their respective leagues, it's hard to imagine Craig Thompson and Britton Banowsky not taking a trip out to San Antonio to check out what the Roadrunners have to offer. At worst, UTSA would be about the fifth option for the merged mega conference that will look to add, at minimum, three schools. Today we learned via Tony Jones of the Salt Lake City Tribune that the brain trust of the Alliance visited Western Athletic Conference members Utah State and San Jose State last month, with sources strongly indicating that Utah State (and likely SJSU) will receive invitation to the MWC before July 1st. These two additions would bring the conference to 10 full members, however it has been widely speculated that Air Force will be departing for the Big East shortly.

A nine team conference could work if the merger falls through, but I feel that it is most likely that Craig Thompson will aim for a larger conference if the proposed merger falls through into a mere scheduling alliance due to a lack of large markets in the Mountain West Conference (see Cheyenne, Reno). This scenario seems most plausible at this point since a full-sports merger between C-USA and the MWC would result in 18-24 teams sharing a sole NCAA auto-bid for basketball. The Alliance scenario certainly plays into UTSA's favor. Would a nine team conference consisting of the Denver, Las Vegas, Albuquerque/Santa Fe, Honolulu, Colorado Springs, Reno, Cheyenne, Salt Lake City, and Bay Area markets demand a wealthy TV contract? The addition of the nation's #36 media market (San Antonio) would likely be a nice boon for the conference in their upcoming negotiations with CBS, following the death of The Mountain network. UTSA would bring the conference its fourth highest market ranking. Alternatively, the MWC could invite North Texas to add the nation's fifth largest market, however it's most likely that the Mean Green will end up in C-USA. I think the best way this thing ends up is with UTEP moving to the MWC to bring the conference to nine full members with USU and SJSU and 10 for football (Hawaii). C-USA then invites North Texas and Florida International to come to nine members. The next round of invitations would be UTSA to the MWC and Florida Atlantic and Louisiana Tech to C-USA. Two 11 team conferences with reasonable footprints, strong markets, and a scheduling agreement for a de facto in-season playoff. Count me in. How could that in-season playoff work? Stay tuned as I sketch out a plan.

Episode 18: Mega Conference

Jared takes sick leave, Darrell from RowdyReport.com fills in. We talk Kevin Brown: new offensive coordinator, Basketball struggles, Mega-Conference, UTSA to the Sun Belt?, and other fun stuff.

Also, I postponed the voicemail stuff until later this week/next week. I am just working some of the kinks out. Thanks to the people who have left a message; we'll play our favorites on the podcast soon.


Audio links:

or here.

We also mentioned contributing: podcast@cokerchronicles.com

You can leave a voicemail for us at 210 701 0763. Keep it under a minute and we may play it on the podcast. Leave a comment, ask a question -- your choice. Bow before the magic of Google Voice!

Podcast Episode 2: Miami Vices

GIF courtesy of none other than LSUfreek

In this episode:

• Intro and Practice Talk 
• Ticket Talk -- 5:51
• TAMU moving! --12:18
• Miami! OMG! Strippers and hookers! --30:19
• What it means for the future of College Football --50:01

iPhone-friendly

Tradition and the Aggies

It is important to preserve a collective identity. Tradition serves as a guide, a handy code reference for the social norms by which the new person will abide. It can become stifling, however. New ideas can be crushed by the stodgy adherence to tradition, often called “the way we do things” or “that’s the way it’s always been.”

I’m not exactly sure which iteration of tradition we are talking about with this A&M move.

Pete Thamel says A&M is ignoring tradition. He is mostly talking about the long history of competition between them and Texas. That is good tradition. He is also talking about the conference affiliation with Texas, one that has long favored one over the other. Though, A&M has always had one chief rival, the don’t play that game as a showpiece in Dallas do they? No, Texas has long been the Cowboys to the SWC/BigXII’s NFC East. They are everyone’s rivals and no one’s exclusively.

That’s a bad tradition. Unrequited hate? If A&M has determined that the relationship as currently formed is not worth preserving even at the loss of so much inter-school history? Well then they have no choice. Sure, Texas needs them . . . to fill a role. They need them to be the plucky thorn in their side. Good enough to be a worthy loser post-Thanksgiving.

I’m rooting for them to move. Same way I root for mistreated girlfriends to get out from bad relationships with abusive boyfriends. How could you not? Texas and the rest of the Big XII are not making compelling arguments for staying. that sound much different from said abusive boyfriend, either “You promised.” “Look what you’ll be doing to everyone here!” “You’re being selfish.”

That last one is key. Thamel also threw that line in there. No doubt there is some measure of pride involved on the Aggie half. Deriders call it “ego.” The Aggies have a first-class university and to be cliche -- they have to look out for themselves a bit. Texas A&M is as good or better than Texas in many facets --they just want to be treated like it.

I can’t hate ‘em for that.

TAMU to SEC: What About UTSA?

Brent Zwerneman, TAMU beat writer for the Express-News and Houston Chronicle has the latest.

Dr Saturday on the latest Aggie to Southeastern Conference with loads of links.

This is ever-changing. As Doc Sat mentioned, this story went from fairy tale, wishful thinking rumor to damn near certainty in less than 72 hours.

Here is the quick and dirty:

A&M’s regents moved up their August 22nd meeting to Monday, the15th. The House of Reps in Texas will meet on Tuesday. Also meeting is the SEC heads over the weekend.

Barring some last minute maneuvering by Dan Beebe, who is known for his last second conference-saving prowess, it is looking like the Aggies will be playing SEC football come Fall 2012.

Like last year, that means a chain reaction effecting the entire nation begins. The WAC, UTSA portion is what we are concerned about. Houston is being considered,http://blog.mysanantonio.com/aggies/2011/08/aggies-out-uh-in-for-the-big-12/ if only through the strength of a self-recommendation. http://blog.chron.com/cougars/2010/06/letter-from-houston-area-lawmakers-to-big-12-officials/

That isn’t to say they are a good fit. Dave Ubben thinks it won’t happen.

Dan Beebe has even mentioned that the Big 12 (9) will not be expanding. That is not to be taken as gospel. Dan Beebe is not the most powerful man within the conference, despite holding the title of commissioner. DeLoss Dodds is looking at 20 names:

Local sports talk host Mike Taylor summed that up thusly:

I tend to agree given Dodds' quote at face value. No doubt they are just being good conference members and doing research for a league-wide meeting *wink*. That said, twenty names is a lot and makes it extremely difficult to gauge the direction of college football.

Credentials for new members are not based solely on wins and losses, but distance, money, television markets and most likely: the Texas Legislature. As Chip Brown learned: The lawmakers in Austin are important enough to require maneuvering by the A&M Board of Regents. There are many in the state legislature that don't want this to happen and may still make it difficult. Like in 2010, all the Texas schools will undoubtedly seek to make known their desires and stakes in the matter. The two most politically powerful university systems will now square off while strategically powerful backers of Baylor, Tech, Houston and others hold key votes on the matter.

Where does that leave UTSA? Well, there are really an exhausting number of possibilities if that twenty names thing is real. Even if he is bluffing like a jilted boyfriend/girlfriend would by proclaiming "I totally have like, so many other [chicks/guys] that want to date me anyway" , it still is really up in the air.

Looking at the likely scenarios is most prudent.

Guide:
Likelihood: Why they are in the conversation
Relevant stats and info: Reasons, financial and otherwise, for adding or ignoring the rumor.

U of Houston
Likelihood: Mentioned by outgoing A&M as a good replacement.
Relevant stats and info: Seating capacity of 32,000, relatively little support for a city as large as Houston. There are a lot of former Louisianans living in Houston which may split the viewing audience between the Big 12 and SEC. The lone strength of the Houston bid may be mitigated by that one fact.

TCU
Likelihood: The favorite of media types and very obvious
Relevant stats and info: Seating capacity of 47,000 and renewed interest in the program. Despite the good news, TCU only has around 10,000 students enrolled and most detrimental, is located in Big XII country. The Dallas-Fort Worth market is already home to Big XII HQ, has a large Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and Baylor alumni base and hosts the annual clash between Texas and OU. There is precious little to be gained from adding TCU other than a tougher schedule and perhaps a slight prestige boost. TCU is not as rich (endowmently speaking) nor nearly as politically powerful as Texas A&M. They also recently committed to the Big East.

UTEP, SMU, Rice
Likelihood: Texas schools so they come up as possibilities.
Relevant stats and info: UTEP is closer California than Dallas. SMU faces the same problems as TCU. Rice faces similar problems to U of H but with a lesser team.

UNT
Likelihood: They are in Texas
Relevant stats and info: New Stadium (Apogee Stadium)! New coach, large enrollment and equally large alumni base. UNT bid suffers poor support (measly endowment) and the location. It is in the DFW area.

UTSA
Likelihood: Texas team!
Relevant stats and info: Nearly the same enrollment as UNT, large stadium, lots of pre-support. Lots of excitement. Big city from which to draw revenue. Problem here is the obvious: it is a new program. Tossing such a fledgling into the grinder that is the Big XII (9) would be program suicide.

Other Rumors:

This is where UTSA factors in. The SEC will likely add a 14th team and some say even all the way up to a mind-boggling 20 teams. The likely candidates (or the ones that are tossed around as possibilities) are Miami, Florida State -- has reportedly been in talks for months http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Florida-State-joins-Texas-A-amp-M-in-the-SEC-rum?urn=ncaaf-wp4902 -- Oklahoma and Okie State, Virginia Tech ( said they’d politely decline ). The Pac-12 might be re-interested in the Big 12 south sans Aggieland, too. Likely sticking point? The Longhorn Network.

Don’t forget about the Big Ten (12). They’ve already mentioned they’d like to expand some more. Last year the first (big) mover was Neb/Colorado. They smaller conferences made their moves after*. After A&M makes the switch, the Big East will take a stab at the remaining conference members of the ACC and vice-versa. They’ll also look to pick apart the CUSA.

*I know BYU, Boise, and Utah moved also and when.

My concern is that the WAC will be so picked over and helpless that it fails and/or turns into the Sunbelt. After the Super Conferences funnel take in an even larger portion of the pie how much will be left for the smaller conferences?

Fearless Predictions:

I’ve already started this blog out with a terrible lowball first game attendance prediction. Good news: I’m human. You needn’t fear me. Bad news: I’m still pretty awesome. You probably should fear me.

Here goes:

A&M moves to SEC. SEC makes a run at an ACC team (either Va Tech, Clemson, Fla State or Miami). Depending on how many they poach, ACC starts poaching from CUSA/Sunbelt (East Carolina, Troy, MTSU or one of the FIU/FAU). Sunbelt/WAC either merge remaining teams or some combination of the remaining organize themselves.

The BiG 10 (12) will only look at former Big 12 North teams. Texas goes independent.

There. Nice and general-like to give myself room to say I was right. Like an awesome guy would.

***


Most likely this article will be outdated and useless about halfway through Saturday. Check back for more updates and we’ll be most definitely talking about this on the podcast on Tuesday night. You can email questions and suggestions to podcast[at]cokerchronicles.com. Put “podcast” in the subject line so we know it is a question and we don’t miss it.