The way I see the schedule the games degree of victor-ability (that's a big boy word you only learn in the business school at UTSA). This year's schedule has a couple of items that next year's schedule won't, creampuff games. There is a reason Vegas expects the Runners to win 3 more than the Bobcats, scheduling. Enjoy it this year, because it will never be this light again.
The Creampuffs
Game 2 vs Texas A&M-Commerce
Game 4 vs NW Oklahoma State
Looks like a couple games off of last year's schedule. While a second year team shouldn't assume anything, these are tough not to pencil in. Commerce won one game last year in Division II's Lone Start Conference. They even finished behind San Antonio's second rate college football team, Incarnate Word. NWOSU went 4-6 last year including a loss to Bacone, a team UTSA destroyed. Both these games are at home and I would be severly disappointed if we don't go 2-0 against the creampuffs.
Southland Size-Up
Game 10 vs McNeese State
Game 12 vs Texas State
Two old Southland Conference mates that we left behind. Texas State finished at .500 last year overall and against the Southland. One of their wins came against McNeese State, a team who beat UTSA 24-21 in Lake Charles. The Roadrunners should be evenly matched against both these teams, and being at home won't hurt. I would expect to split these games, but would love to see two victories as we leave these schools behind.
Plus-Game Peers
Game 1 at South Alabama
Game 2 at Georgia State
Last year the Alamodome hosted two overtime games. One ended up in a win and one a loss. This year a return game is given as the Runners hit the road. Both are new programs, just barely older than the UTSA's and are in the process of becoming FBS, in the Sunbelt Conference. The good guys should have won both games last year, as USA blocked a potentialy game winning field goal in what I consider the most exciting game of the 2011 campagin. Obviously, both teams are even matches for UTSA, and these matches will give them a chance to earn their first road win ever. I think 1-1 would be good to see, but both 0-2 and 2-0 are very possible.
Weak WAC Roadies
Game 5 at New Mexico State
Game 11 at Idaho
The first and last ever road WAC games for UTSA. These two teams brought up the bottom of the WAC last year and are pondering their future in the FBS. NMSU is historically one of the worst FBS squads and Idaho is coming off of a two win season. However, both teams should outclass UTSA and being at home will make these tough. Hopeful a win can be squeezed out of these games.
Challenges at Home
Game 7 vs San Jose
Game 8 vs Utah State
Two decent teams come to the dome before they move on to the Mountain West Conference. These guys aren't FBS powerhouses, they are definitely a step up from the Runners at this stage of the game. While the Alamodome offers a nice home field advantage, I don't think it will make a difference for these games. I expect a pair of losses, but hope to be wrong.
Road Rippings
Game 6 at Rice
Game 9 at Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech won the WAC last year and are the favorites to repeat. They have an explosive offense and will be ready to pounce for their homecoming. Rice is a middle of the pack CUSA program and will host the game as part of their Centennial Celebration. Both these teams will be future rivals so will be cool to see that get started. However, I think the Runners are up for a couple of butt kickings on this one.
As the schedule falls, I would say 4 wins would be acceptable, 5 would be good and 6 would be great. As for an early prediction, I am going with 5 wins. Pencil in the two creampuffs, take one from the Southland, one from the peers and one WAC road game. I am hopeful that the guys will get an extra one out of these groups.
This year will give us a few wins, so enjoy it. Next season is going to be brutal. A very tough out of conference schedule to go along with the step up to CUSA, wins will be very hard to come by. While we won't have the most talented team, they probably will be among the most game experienced as the underclassmen get so much playing time in their first seasons. Probably not enough to overcome, but hey it works in basketball!
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